The Marin Real Estate Report - First Quarter 2024

The Marin Real Estate Report - First Quarter 2024

Happy Spring Dear Clients and Friends,

In reflection this winter, with all the unprecedented events since 2020, it's now appropriate to look through a wider lense to see where we are four years into this market cycle. This Quarterly Report is a larger more comprehensive report and I will send notable tidbits of data over the next couple months. One tidbit is labeled as such in this report.

The Big Picture:

- Since March of 2020 and the beginning of the pandemic, our Marin real estate market has netted an 11% gain in home values; after a 5.7% fall from the highs of April 2022, and after 18 months of ELEVEN federal interest rate hikes. Fed rates have now remained stable since July 2023.

- The first chart below shows Marin average sales price is more than double that of the State average and quadruple that of the US overall.

- To recap, these results are despite Covid, super high inflation (9% in 4/2022), and the dramatic rise in the cost of money in the shortest timeframe ever (3% in 3/22 to 6.7% in 3/23).

Bravo Marin!

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The Fuel and The Challenge:

- We are down 60% in numbers of homes for sale and homes sold in one month from the cycle peak in May 2021. 410 homes sold in May 2021. 161 homes sold in March 2024. Each year has yielded a descending fewer homes sold. (See the sales volume chart below).

- The Net: the high demand and short supply of homes for sale has obviously influenced the net result of values gaining 11%, despite all the challenges we have faced.

- The Challenge Continues: the cost of a mortgage more than doubling continues to be the principle reason sellers are not listing their homes for sale. Sellers then become buyers and lose their 3% mortgage rate. However, after two full years of +-7% mortgage interest rates specifically intended to crush our market, the results suggest buyer demand remains high and SELLERS ARE COMING BACK to the market.

- The Beginning Shift: For the first time in 3 years the number of homes for sale has INCREASED compared to the same month the year prior. In March 2023, there were 262 homes for sale. In March 2024, there were 311 homes for sale. That's a 19% increase in inventory from the year prior.

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Early Spring Market News:

- The high end of our market returned in March, after being almost stagnant for the second half of 2023. Luxury home sales (over $4.0 million) more than tripled in March from February and exceeded March 2023 (see the luxury home sales chart below).

- Here's one of those first ever impressive tidbits in our luxury market over $4.0 million:

10 E Southridge Rd in Tiburon, listed at $4,495,000 in March received 10 OFFERS and sold 34.6% OVER ASKING PRICE at $6,050,000. This sale yielded the largest number of offers EVER on a property over $4 million in Marin...and also the highest % overbid EVER on any property over $3.5 million in Marin. Wow!

- It is typical in March to see a big jump in both units for sale and those going into contract, BUT in March more homes sold ABOVE LIST PRICE than at or below in ALL PRICE POINTS! Remember in March the Fed still promised 3 rate reductions to likely begin in June. In April that hope was reversed.

- $1,700,000 has held steady as our median countywide sales price since February, up from $1,650,000 for the 4th quarter 2023. (see the quarterly price apprection chart)

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There are wildcards: world politics or a significant rise in inflation could usurp these results and it now looks uncertain if any Fed rate reduction will occur at all in 2024, but the 4 year macro charts below suggest whatever is in store, will likely be less eventful than the last 4 years, therefore our market should remain stable.

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Important comments on the FIRST 5 charts (after Patrick's intro):

- Chart #1: Marin average sales price is more than double that of the State average and quadruple that of the US overall.

- Chart #2: Demand and resiliency cannot be better demonstrated than looking at the macro view of our Marin appreciation over the last 10 years since the 2008 to 2011 recession ended.

*Charts 3 & 4*: In March, Marin tops all 11 Bay Area counties in median sales prices for what Patrick, our Chief Analyst labels "more expensive Marin", which he identifies as Ross/Kentfield and south at $2,875,000. Impressive!

The median sales pice in March including "more affordable Marin" (principally San Rafael & Novato, but includes San Anselmo and Fairfax) is $2,101,000; 2nd only to San Mateo County, which has a far higher percentage of high priced communities including Atherton, Menlo Park, Los Altos, Palo Alto, Hillsborough and Burlingame.

- Chart #5: Condo sales in Central / Southern Marin carry a far higher value than anywhere in the Bay Area except SF, where condos represent 40% approximately of all residences, therefore can be expected to reflect higher sales prices. Yes, those high rises are pricey.

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We will see if the March increased numbers of listings is the beginning of the comeback trend and finally yields an increase in sales as the Spring season continues. I will report!

We are very lucky to live in a beautiful and safe place on the planet, with clean air, good schools, a strong employment infrastructure, short commute to SF, an outstanding cultural scene nearby, and exceptional quality of life.

For now, I wish you time to savor the minutes of the wildflower blooms.

Warmest Regards, Michelle