Happy August Friends and Clients,
As every other macro indicator would suggest, sales prices and numbers of sales continued lower in July, but not as dramatically in Marin, compared to many parts of the Bay Area and beyond.
Summer months are typically slower due to summer vacations, however, caution has entered the fold and was expected, after our unprecedented 10-year run-up in values (excepting 3/2020-5/2020 due to Covid).
It was a matter of when and what circumstance would set the pullback in motion. It is logical to assume the dramatic increase in the cost of money and lack of consumer confidence due to declining investment portfolios and fear of inflation led the charge.
July / early August has presented a dramatic rebound in the investment markets. We will see if that trend sustains and if there is impact in our real estate market when sales typically pick up for our Fall season, beginning in September. No predictions really possible yet especially with the cost of money still rising (though lending rates down from peak 5.8% in early July).
Compass analyst Patrick Carlisle tells the story well below, but makes the comment on several charts that 1-2 month market shifts cannot portray an accurate picture of the total trend.
4 notes to observe:
- Median sales price trends are still about on par with 2021 peaks.
- Year-to-date appreciation is still up 8% overall.
- Inventory swelled 23% year over year in July; homes are taking longer to sell with price reductions needed for leftover inventory.
- BIG MARIN REVEAL: 48% of all listings still sold over the asking price in July; down from 76% of all listings sold over the asking in March. In certain the ultimate winning bids are more conservative than they were, as well as fewer numbers of offers coming in, compared to early Spring.
The important message: take care of your home's infrastructure as needed. When it's time to sell, move out; do the cosmetic improvements (Concierge can help interest free - ask us) and price your property according to recent sales in your neighborhood, not on wishful thinking. Your results will still prove to be very good.
Have a wonderful rest of summer!
Our best always,
Ronda and Michelle